Ngaba uGcino lwaMandla lungaxelisa uMmangaliso wokuKhula kweSola kunye noMoya?

Ngaba uGcino lwaMandla lungaxelisa uMmangaliso wokuKhula kweSola kunye noMoya?

Amathuba amaTsha e-Triliyoni yeeDollar kwiNguqu yaMandla

Ukusuka “kuLwandiso oluKhawulezayo” ukuya “kuPhucuko lomGangatho nokuSebenza”

Ukusukela ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2025, ubungakanani obufakelweyo baseTshayina bamandla elanga nawomoya bangaphaya kwe-1.456 yeebhiliyoni zeekhilowathi, bebetha amandla obushushu okwesihlandlo sokuqala ukuze babe ngowona mthombo wamandla welizwe. ISolar iqhubele phambili ngesantya sokukhula esingaphezulu kwe-40% ngonyaka, iqhutywa ziiprojekthi ezisasaziweyo kunye nofakelo lwesiseko esikhulu kwisikali esikhulu. Nangona ukukhula kumandla omoya kuye kwathotha ukuya kutsho kwi-17.6% ngenxa yezohlwayo zeeprojekthi kunye nemijikelo yolwakhiwo, umoya ovela ngaselunxwemeni kunye nokuhlaziywa kweeinjini zomoya ezidala zihlala ziyimiqobo yokukhula kwexesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, ukuguquguquka okungokwemvelo kohlaziyo kunye neengxaki zokudityaniswa kweegridi zonyukile, ngomndilili weeyure zokusetyenziswa kweeyunithi zokuvelisa umbane zehle ngeeyure ezingama-61 ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo. Oku kunyanzelise ukukhula kotyalo-mali kwigridi ukuba kunyuke ukuya kuma-33.5%, kubeka ugcino lwamandla kwindawo ephambili “njengeziko lolawulo” eliyintloko.

Ukusuka "Kuqhutywa nguMgaqo-nkqubo" ukuya "kuKuqondwa kweValue"

Ukusukela ngo-2024, umthamo ofakiweyo ofakiweyo wogcino lwamandla olutsha (oko kukuthi, iibhetri) e-China ufikelele kwi-74.66 GW, ukuya kwi-131.86% ngonyaka kwaye ibe yeyona nto iphambili, ithatha indawo yokugcina i-hydropomp. Isantya esinjalo sokukhula sikhuthazwa zezi zizathu zilandelayo:

Ukwenziwa kwezinto ezintsha kubuchwepheshe kunye nokuncipha kweendleko: Amaxabiso ebhetri yeLithium-ion ehle ngaphezulu kwama-60% ukusukela ngo-2020, kwaye ugcino lomoya ocinezelweyo ongama-300 MW wodidi lwe-MW kunye nogcino lwe-flywheel lungene kwimizi-mveliso, luphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwenkqubo nge-3-5%.

Iinkuthazo zoMgaqo-nkqubo: IsiCwangciso se-14 seMinyaka emiHlanu soPhuhliso loHlobo olutsha loGcino lwaMandla lubonise iinjongo ezicacileyo zesikali ngowama-2025, kunye nezixhobo zengingqi ezifana nembuyekezo yomthamo kunye nexabiso eliphezulu lentlambo ukudibanisa ugcino kwiimarike zombane.

Iimfuno zegridi kunye nezicelo ezahlukeneyo: Njengoko ipesenti yezinto ezihlaziyiweyo ziwela i-50% yomthamo ofakelweyo, iimfuno zokuguquguquka kwegridi zidlule kuphahla. Ugcino ngoku ludlala indima ebalulekileyo ekusetyenzisweni okufana nokuhanjiswa kwesiseko esihlaziyiweyo, ishishini/ukucheba incopho yorhwebo, kunye nobonelelo lombane olungxamisekileyo. Ngexesha lencopho yehlobo lika-2024, ugcino lubalelwa kwi-45% yemijikelo yentlawulo yesizwe/yokukhutshwa, ngaphezulu kwe-85% kwamanye amaphondo.

IiNgcaciso zokuKhula eziDivergent kunye nemingeni

Nangona bobabini beyonwabela ileyibhile yamandla acocekileyo, ukuhlaziya kunye nokugcinwa kulandela iindlela ezahlukeneyo:

Amandla emalike: Ilanga/umoya unenkxaso kunye nokuthotywa kwexabiso elilinganayo ekunokuthembela kulo, ngelixa ugcino kufuneka lufumane inzuzo ngokwenza imali ngeemarike zombane.

Iindlela zeThekhnoloji: Ubuchwepheshe belanga/umoya buthe ngqo kwimveliso (umzekelo, isilicon PV, iiiturbines ezondliwe kabini), kanti ugcino lunokwahluka (i-lithium, iibhetri eziqukuqelayo, umoya ocinezelweyo, njl. njl.).

Iimodeli zengeniso: Izinto ezihlaziyiweyo zonwabela iintlawulo zesondlo, ngelixa ugcino lungena kwiindlela ezininzi: i-arbitrage yamandla, iinkonzo ezincedisayo, kunye nokuqeshisa ngezakhono.

Imingeni ekhoyo iquka ukungasetyenziswa kakuhle (ama-30% amaxabiso omthamo kwezinye iiprojekthi), izehlo zokhuseleko ezikhokelela ekuphulukaneni nokuzithemba, kunye neenkqubo ezingagqitywanga zokuthunyelwa kwemimandla. Imigaqo-nkqubo efana noMthetho waMandla ka-2024, nangona kunjalo, iyakhawulezisa iindlela ezisekwe kwintengiso zokusetyenziswa kwendawo yokugcina ukuqina kwegridi kunye nokuhlawulwa kwamandla.

ISingise phi Ugcino?

Uqikelelo lwemizi-mveliso lubona uhlobo olutsha lwe-China yokugcina amandla kwi-220 GW ngo-2030, kunye nobukhulu bemarike obungaphezulu kwe-¥3 yetriliyoni. Iindlela ezintathu ezisisiseko salo mbono:

Iimfuno zokuphucula igridi: Izinto ezihlaziywayo ziya kuba ngamashumi eebhiliyoni zeekilowathi ngo-2060, apho ugcino luba ngundoqo wokudibanisa "isizukulwana-igridi-umthwalo-ukugcinwa"

Ukwahluka kweTekhnoloji: Iibhetri ze-sodium-ion, ukugcinwa komxhuzulane, kunye nobunye ubuchwepheshe sele bukwizigaba zokulinga, ngelixa iindleko zokugcina ixesha elide (iiyure ezi-4+) ziya kuhla nge-40%.

Ukwandiswa kwamazwe ngamazwe: i-90% yazo zonke iibhetri zelithium zokugcina zenziwa ziifemu zaseTshayina, ezinemfuno emandla kwiimarike ezifana ne-Southeast Asia kunye noMzantsi Afrika ovuselela uhlaziyo lwefektri.

Indawo yokugcina ayisiyiyo “Enye iSolar/Umoya”-SisiSeko esitsha seNguqulelo yaMandla.

Ngelixa ilanga kunye nomoya zibonelela "isizukulwana," ukugcinwa kukhathalela "ukuzinzisa." Ukuvela kwayo kuxhomekeke kuhlaziyo lwemarike yamandla, ukukhula kwetekhnoloji, kunye neemeko zokusetyenziswa ezisasazekileyo. Njengoko umgaqo-nkqubo, iimarike, kunye nezinto ezintsha zidibana, ugcino lukwindlela eyahluka-hlukeneyo ukusuka kwizinto ezivuselelekayo kwaye kumi kumda wokuba ngowona mda uthembisayo wetriliyoni yeedola kukhuphiswano lokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni.