Mingaphi iminyaka eyongezelelweyo enokuthi ishishini lokugcina amandla lidume?

Ngokwedatha yeshishini yamva nje kunye nohlalutyo lwentsingiselo ngo-2025, ishishini lokugcina amandla liya kuqhubeka nokugcina ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba liqhubeke lishushu kude kube ngu-2030, kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe litshintshe ukusuka ekwandiseni isikali ukuya kuphuhliso olukumgangatho ophezulu. Oku kulandelayo kukutolika okubanzi ukusuka kubukhulu bezinto zokuqhuba ezingundoqo, amandla okukhula kwemarike, isikhokelo sophinda-phindo lwetekhnoloji kunye nemingcipheko enokubakho:

1. Izinto eziphambili zokuqhuba: umgaqo-nkqubo + imfuno + itekhnoloji "troika"

Inkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo iyaqhubeka ukwanda

Ngaphantsi kwenjongo yaseChina "yekhabhoni ezimbini", ugcino lwamandla amatsha luchazwa ngokucacileyo njengenkxaso ephambili yokwakha inkqubo entsha yamandla. Ngo-2025, ugxininiso lomgaqo-nkqubo luya kutshintshela ekuphuculweni kweendlela ezijoliswe kwiimarike, kubandakanywa imbuyekezo yexabiso lombane, ukurhweba kwendawo, imodeli yokugcina amandla okwabelwana ngayo, njl., Ukukhuthaza ukuguqulwa kokugcinwa kwamandla ukusuka "kumgaqo-nkqubo" ukuya "kwintengiso". Ngokomzekelo, iindawo ezininzi ziye zazisa imigaqo-nkqubo yokuqeshisa amandla okugcina amandla amatsha ukuphonononga iindlela zengeniso zokugcinwa kwamandla okuthatha inxaxheba kwimarike yamandla.

Kwiimarike zaphesheya kweelwandle, iMelika, iYurophu, uMbindi Mpuma kunye nezinye iindawo zivuselela imfuno ngenkxaso-mali, inkuthazo yerhafu kunye neemfuno zamandla emveliso yasekhaya. Umzekelo, ekuphenduleni ukonyuka kwamaxabiso okugcina amandla ukuya kwi-25% ngo-2026, iUnited States iya kubona ukukhawuleza ukufaka ngo-2025.

Imfuno engqongqo yokwanda kokungena kwamandla amatsha

Umlinganiselo wokuveliswa kwamandla amatsha uyaqhubeka nokunyuka (i-China ilindeleke ukuba idlule i-20% ngo-2025), kwaye ukuguquguquka kwayo kufuna ukugcinwa kwamandla kwincopho kunye nokulawulwa rhoqo. Inxalenye yehlabathi yokugcina amandla amatsha iyanda. Ngo-2025, umthamo omtsha we-photovoltaic ofakwe kwihlabathi jikelele kulindeleke ukuba ufikelele kwi-490GW, uqhube ukukhula kwangaxeshanye kwimfuno yokugcina amandla. Ukongezelela, iimeko ezivelayo ezifana namaziko edatha anesidingo esiqhumayo "sokuhlanganiswa kokugcinwa kwe-photovoltaic", kunye ne-photovoltaic amaziko ogcino-amaziko edatha e-Middle East sele ezoqoqosho.

Inkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe kunye nokunciphisa iindleko

Itekhnoloji yeeseli zebhetri: iiseli zebhetri ezinomthamo omkhulu (500Ah +) kunye neenkqubo zokugcina amandla exesha elide (4h +) zikhawulezisa ukuthandwa kwazo. Ngo-2025, iindleko zeenkqubo zokugcina amandla kulindeleke ukuba zehle nge-15% -20% xa kuthelekiswa ne-202435.

Ukusetyenziswa kwezinto ezintsha: Iibhetri ze-sodium-ion ziye zangena kwinqanaba lokurhweba, kwaye iingenelo zeebhetri eziqinileyo ezikhuselekileyo kunye nobomi zivela ngokuthe ngcembe. I-2025 inokuba ngunyaka wokuqala wesicelo esikhulu.

Uphuculo lobukrelekrele: Itekhnoloji ye-AI ikhulisa ukucwangciswa kwenkqubo yokugcina amandla kunye nesilumkiso sempazamo, kwaye itekhnoloji yamawele edijithali iphucula ukusebenza kunye nokugcinwa kakuhle510.

2. Amandla okukhula kwemarike: Ukuqhambuka kwemimandla emininzi yehlabathi, amathuba olwakhiwo abalaselisiwe

Umahluko weemarike zengingqi

I-China: Ngo-2025, umthamo ofakwe kwicala lomthombo wegridi kulindeleke ukuba udlule i-110GWh, kunye ne-Inner Mongolia, i-Xinjiang kunye namanye amaphondo amandla amatsha ahamba phambili; izinga lokukhula kokugcinwa kwamandla oshishino kunye nezorhwebo kwicala lomsebenzisi lidlula i-50%, kunye nokuthengwa kwe-centralized yamashishini asebenzisa amandla aphezulu kumbindi we-China kuye kwaba ngumkhwa.

EUnited States: Ukukhawuleza kokufaka ukugcinwa kwamandla angaphambi kwemitha kuye kwaqhuba umthamo omtsha ofakiweyo ukuba udlule i-45GWh ngo-2025, kwaye imarike yengeniso ephezulu iye yatsala iinkampani zaseTshayina ukuba zifake amandla okuvelisa asekhaya.

IYurophu: Inkxaso-mali yomgaqo-nkqubo kunye neendlela zokuthengisa amandla zikhulile, kwaye izinga lokukhula lilindeleke ukuba lidlule kwi-60% ngo-2025, kunye neJamani kunye ne-Spain njengezona ntengiso ziphambili ezongezelelweyo.

KuMbindi Mpuma: Izicwangciso ezitsha zokutshintsha amandla eSaudi Arabia, iUnited Arab Emirates nakwamanye amazwe ziye zavelisa iiprojekthi ezikwinqanaba le-GWh, ezinokuba yindawo yesine yehlabathi yokugcina amandla ngo-2025.

Amathuba omkhondo ahlukeneyo

Ugcino olukhulu: Umthamo omtsha ofakiweyo wehlabathi jikelele ubalelwa ngaphezulu kwe-70%, kunye neeprojekthi ezikwinqanaba le-10GWh kuMbindi Mpuma kunye nezikhululo zamandla ezizimeleyo zokugcina amandla e-United States zibe yeyona nto iphambili.

Ukugcinwa kwamandla oshishino kunye nezorhwebo: Izinga lokukhula kweemarike zaphesheya lidlula i-100%, kwaye iimeko zesicelo zihlukeneyo (njengamaziko edatha kunye neepaki zoshishino).

Ukugcinwa kwamandla exesha elide: Imfuno yeenkqubo ezinde kuneeyure ze-4 iye yanda, kwaye ukuthengiswa kweebhetri zokuhamba kunye nobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla omoya ocinezelweyo uye wakhawuleza.

3. Umkhombandlela wokuphindaphinda itekhnoloji: ukusuka "enkulu" ukuya "kubuchule"

Iiseli zebhetri ezinomthamo omkhulu kunye nenkqubo ukudityaniswa

Kwi-2025, umthamo weeseli zebhetri eziqhelekileyo ziya kufikelela kwi-400Ah +, kwaye umthamo we-20-foot-container storage systems iya kudlula i-8MWh. Iinkampani ezihamba phambili ezifana neCATL kunye ne-Envision Energy ziya kukhokelela ekuphuculweni kweteknoloji.

Ukuphumelela kwitekhnoloji entsha yokugcina amandla

Iibhetri ze-sodium-ion: I-BYD, i-CATL kunye nabanye baye baqalisa iimveliso zokugcina amandla ezinikezelweyo, kwaye iindleko zokuvelisa ubuninzi kulindeleke ukuba zibe ngaphantsi kweebhetri ze-lithium kwi-2025.

Iibhetri ze-Solid-state: I-Qingtao Energy, i-Tailan Amandla amatsha kunye nezinye iiprojekthi zifakwe kwimveliso, kunye nokhuseleko oluphezulu olulungiselelwe iimeko zokugcina amandla amakhulu.

Ukugcinwa kwamandla ohlobo lwegridi: IHuawei kunye neSungrow babeke itekhnoloji yenkxaso yegridi esebenzayo, kwaye izinga lokungena linokufikelela kwi-7GW ngo-2025.

Intelligence kunye nezinto ezintsha ezintsha

I-AI ixhobisa ukuqikelelwa kobomi bebhetri kunye nokusebenza ngokukhuselekileyo kunye nokugcinwa, kunye nezixhobo ze-silicon carbide (i-SiC) ziphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kweziguquli zokugcina amandla, ukuqhuba uxinano lwamandla enkqubo ukunyuka ngama-30%.

4. Imingcipheko enokubakho kunye nemingeni

Uhlenga-hlengiso lweshishini kunye nokhuphiswano olumandla

Ngo-2024, ukujikelezwa kwangaphakathi kwexabiso eliphantsi kuya kukhokelela ekuphumeni kwamashishini amancinci naphakathi. Ngo-2025, isabelo semarike sawona mashishini ali-10 aphezulu angagqitha kuma-85%, kwaye amashishini anobuchwephesha obungasemva okanye isixokelelwano esiyinkunzi esibuthathaka siya kujongana nokupheliswa.

Ukungaqiniseki kwemigaqo-nkqubo kunye neendlela zentengiso

Kweminye imimandla, imithetho yokuthunyelwa kogcino lwamandla ayifezekanga, kwaye ingeniso yomahluko wexabiso eliyincopho-kwintlambo ayizinzile; umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wase-US kunye neemfuno zamandla emveliso yalapha kuMbindi Mpuma zonyusa ubunzima bokuya phesheya kolwandle.

Iingxaki zobugcisa kunye noxinzelelo lweendleko

I-industrialization yombane we-sodium inqande ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-lithium, ixabiso lokuvelisa ubuninzi beebhetri ze-solid-state liphezulu, kwaye iindleko zokugcina amandla ixesha elide kufuneka zincitshiswe ngakumbi ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-0.3 yuan / kWh.

5. Ujongo lwekamva: Ukukhula okuphezulu kunokulindelwa phambi kowama-2030

Ubungakanani bemarike

Kuqikelelwa ukuba ugcino lwamandla omhlaba jikelele olufakelweyo luya kudlula i-250GWh ngo-2025, kwaye indawo yemarike iya kudlula i-yuan eyi-200 yeebhiliyoni; ngo-2030, umthamo ofakiweyo waseTshayina wogcino lwamandla amatsha unokufikelela kwi-220GW, kwaye ixabiso lilonke lemveliso yoshishino liya kudlula i-3 yetriliyoni yeyuan.

Isikhokelo sotyalo-mali

Ikhonkco lomqobo ophezulu: Abaguquli bokugcina amandla (i-PCS) kunye nabahlanganisi benkqubo (ezifana ne-Sungrow) banenzuzo eyomeleleyo kunye ne-premium ebalulekileyo kwiimarike zaphesheya.

Iinkampani ezihamba phambili zeteknoloji: I-CATL (iiseli zebhetri), i-Haichen Energy Storage (umbane we-sodium), i-Huawei (ukugcinwa kwamandla ohlobo lwegridi), njl.

Umzila wokugcinwa kwamandla exesha elide: Iibhetri zokuhamba kwamanzi kunye neeprojekthi zokugcina amandla omoya ocinezelekileyo zifumene inkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo kwaye zifanelekile ukucwangciswa kwexesha elide.

"Umlilo" weshishini lokugcina amandla uya kuqhubeka ubuncinci kude kube yi-2030, kodwa imodeli yokukhula iya kutshintsha ukusuka ekwandiseni okubanzi ukuya kwimisebenzi eqhutywe kwi-teknoloji kunye neemarike. Kule minyaka mihlanu izayo, iinkampani ezinobugcisa obuphambili kunye nobuchule bokucwangciswa kwehlabathi ziya kulawula imarike, kunye nokuqina kwenkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo, isantya sokunciphisa iindleko zobuchwepheshe, kunye nenkqubela phambili yohlaziyo lwemarike yamandla zizinto eziguquguqukayo eziphambili zokuthandwa okuqhubekayo kolu shishino. Abatyali-mali banokugxila kumacandelo angaphantsi afana nokugcinwa okukhulu, ukugcinwa kwamandla kwimizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo, kunye nombane wesodium / iibhetri eziqinileyo.