Ugcino lwamandla orhwebo kunye nolwemizi-mveliso lungazisa isantya sophuhliso kulo nyaka uzayo!

Ngokunzulu kolwakhiwo lwamandla ehlabathi kunye nenjongo "yekhabhoni ezimbini", ugcino lwamandla orhwebo kunye noshishino lungenisa amathuba ophuhliso angazange abonwe ngaphambili. Kulindeleke ukuba ngo-2025, imarike yogcino lwamandla oshishino lwehlabathi kunye nezorhwebo iya kubonisa ukukhula okugqabhukileyo, inkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo evela koorhulumente, ukukhula kolungelelwaniso phakathi konikezelo lweemarike kunye nemfuno, kunye nethemba lenzuzo enkulu, kunye kuqhuba eli candelo kwimbali entsha.

Okokuqala, Ubungakanani beMarike kunye noQoqosho loMmandla oluFakelweyo

* Ubungakanani bemakethi: Ngokwengxelo kaDataintelo, imakethi yehlabathi yokugcina amandla kushishino kunye nezorhwebo iya kuba malunga ne-15 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2023, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikhule iye kuthi ga kwiibhiliyoni ezingama-45 zeedola ngo-2032 ngesantya sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiweyo (CAGR) se-12.5%.

* Umthamo ofakiweyo: I-TrendForce ilindele ukuba umthamo ofakwe kwihlabathi jikelele wogcino lwamandla amatsha ufikelele kwi-86 GW/221 GWh ngo-2025, i-27%/36% yokukhula konyaka-nyaka ukusuka kwi-2024, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla kwicala lezoshishino kunye nezorhwebo kudlala indima ebalulekileyo.

* Ukusebenza kwemarike okwahlukeneyo (umzekelo, imarike yase-US)

Ngokutsho kwengxelo ye-US Energy Storage Monitor epapashwe ngokudibeneyo yi-American Council for Clean Energy (ACP) kunye ne-Wood Mackenzie, imarike yokugcina amandla e-US (inkonzo, ukuhanjiswa, urhwebo, kunye noshishino) iya kwongeza malunga ne-15.2 GW / 48.7 GWh yofakelo olutsha kwi-2025, apho:

Icala eliluncedo: kulindeleke ukuba likhule nge-22%, libalelwa esona sabelo siphezulu;

Ukugcinwa kwamandla asasazwayo: uninzi oluguquguqukayo ngomgaqo-nkqubo, ukulungiswa kwenkuthazo;

Icala lezorhwebo nezoshishino: lihlala lomelele, kunye nofakelo olutsha olumalunga ne-0.4 GW/0.8 GWh, lunyuke malunga ne-11% unyaka nonyaka.

* Ukusebenza kwemarike yehlabathi

NgokukaWood Mackenzie Q2 2024 “I-Global Energy Storage Market Outlook”, ekupheleni kuka-2024, i-global (ngaphandle kogcino olumponthiweyo) i-cumulative efakelweyo umthamo we-159 GW/358 GWh, kulindeleke ukuba ukususela ngo-2024-2033 kuya kongezwa enye i-926 GW/2 789 XNUMX GW.

Ezi datha zibonisa ukuba, ngokuphuculwa kokuvuthwa kwezobuchwepheshe kunye neendleko eziqhubekayo zokuhla, isiseko esifakiweyo sokugcina amandla oshishino kunye nezorhwebo siya kuzisa ukwanda okukhulu kunyaka ozayo.

Okwesibini, i-multi-national superposition efanelekileyo

1. iunited States

* UMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwamaxabiso ezinto (Inflation Act) (IRA) uyaqhubeka ukubonelela ukuya kuthi ga kwi-30% yetyala lerhafu yotyalo-mali (ITC), kunye nenkuthazo eyongezelelweyo kwimveliso yasekhaya kunye neeprojekthi zoluntu ezinengeniso ephantsi.

* Umyalelo we-FERC we-841 utyhala ukuvula iimarike zombane kwindawo yokugcina amandla kwaye ikhuthaza ukuthatha inxaxheba kokugcinwa kulawulo lwamaxesha kunye neemarike zamandla.

* I-3.8 GW yokugcina amandla amatsha e-US kwi-Q3 2024, i-80% ngonyaka-unyaka, kunye ne-12 GW ephantse ifakwe ngonyaka, ixesha elide eliphezulu.

2. iTshayina

* ISicwangciso seMinyaka emiHlanu ye-14 sibeka ukugcinwa kwamandla amatsha njengento ephambili ekujoliswe kuyo, ephakamisa ukuba ngo-2025, umthamo ofakiweyo wokugcinwa kwamandla uya kufikelela kwi-30 yezigidi ze-kilowatts (GW).

* Inkuthazo yeerhafu zamaphondo amaninzi kunye nolwakhiwo lwemalike yezakhono ukukhawulezisa icala lemizi-mveliso nelezorhwebo lenkqubo yokugcina amandla okufika.

3. iYurophu

* Ukuhlaziywa kwe-EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II/III) ukuqinisa iimfuno zophuhliso lwe-synergistic yokugcina amandla kunye namandla amatsha.

* IJamani, i-United Kingdom kunye namanye amazwe aza kumisela i-hydrogen eluhlaza, uthungelwano lokuhambisa amandla okuhambisa amandla lusasaze iinkxaso-mali ukunceda amashishini ukunciphisa iindleko zokwakha.

4. Ukuphuhlisa amazwe

* I-International Energy Agency (IEA) ilindele ukuba utyalo-mali lwamandla acocekileyo emhlabeni wonke lufikelele kwi-US $ 2.2 yetriliyoni kwi-2025, apho malunga ne-US $ 66 yebhiliyoni iya kutyalwa kugcino lwamandla, igxininisa ukuzithemba kwenkunzi yamazwe ngamazwe kwingeniso yenzuzo yokugcina amandla.

Izahlulo zomgaqo-nkqubo ziyapakishwa; abasebenzisi bemizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo banokufumana inkuthazo ezininzi zokuphucula ngokubonakalayo ukuba nokwenzeka kweprojekthi kunye nembuyekezo kutyalo-mali.

Okwesithathu, ukubonelelwa ngokugqithisileyo okanye ukubonelela?

* Icala lokubonelela: kunye nokwandiswa komthamo wokuvelisa ibhetri (iifektri zebhetri e-China, eMzantsi Korea, naseYurophu ziyaqhubeka nokufika), iindleko zeenkqubo zokugcina amandla ziye zehla ukusuka kwi-US $ 780 / kWh ngo-2013 ukuya kwi-US $ 139 / kWh ngo-2023, ukuhla kwe-80%.

* Icala leMbango: icala lokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwimizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo lijongene nencopho eyandayo kunye nokwahluka kwexabiso lombane kwintlambo, intlawulo yemfuno, kunye noxinzelelo lovavanyo lomda wamandla, ngakumbi kwiipaki zokuvelisa, amaziko edatha, izikhululo zokutshaja, kunye nezinye iimeko zokusetyenziswa kwamandla aphezulu. Imfuno yokugcina amandla inyukile.

* Iimfuno zokuqina kwegridi: ukungena okuphezulu kwamandla amatsha kukhokelela kulawulo olunzima ngakumbi lwegridi, ukugcinwa kwamandla kwimizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo kunokubonelela "ulawulo lwamaza ombane kwisiza", "i-edge standby", kunye nezinye iinkonzo zokunciphisa uxinzelelo kwigridi yamandla.

Ukusuka kwimbono ebanzi, phantsi kwempembelelo edibeneyo yokunciphisa iindleko kunye nemfuno ehlukeneyo, amacala okubonelela kunye nemfuno ahamba ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imarike ngokuthe ngcembe isuka "kwi-supply-driven" ukuya kwi-"demand-tsalled".

Okwesine, ugcino lwamandla ehlabathi luguqule indlela yengeniso

1. I-Peak kunye ne-Valley Arbitrage kunye ne-Peak Shaving, kunye ne-Valley Filling

* Amashishini anokonga i-15% -30% yeendleko zombane ngokutshaja ngexesha lentlambo kunye nokukhupha ngexesha eliphakamileyo.

* Idityaniswe nokuveliswa kwamandla e-photovoltaic, izinga lokuzityela liyenyuka ukuya kwi-70%, linciphisa ngakumbi ixesha lokubuyisela.

2. Ukufuna impendulo kunye neenkonzo ezincedisayo

* Ukuthatha inxaxheba kwiinkonzo ezincedisayo ezifana nolawulo lwamaxesha amaninzi, ukulinda okujikelezayo, ukuqala ngombane, njl. njl

* Ingeniso yeemarike zamandla kwamanye amazwe ibalelwa kwi-10-20% yengeniso epheleleyo.

3. Iikhontrakthi zoLawulo lwaMandla (EMCs) kunye nokwabelana ngokugcinwa kwamandla

* Iinkampani zeqela lesithathu zolawulo lwamandla (ESCOs) zinceda abathengi bezorhwebo kunye nezoshishino ukuba bafezekise "zero threshold" ukuthunyelwa kunye nokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwenkunzi ngokusebenzisa imodeli "yesabelo sokuthenga amandla otyalo-mali".

* Imodeli ye-Multi-User Virtual Power Plant (VPP), edibanisa i-asethi yogcino lwamandla kwimizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo ukuze ifumane iiprimiyamu eziphezulu kwimarike yombane. 4.

4. IMarike yeKhabhoni kunye nokuRhweba ngeMvume yeCarbon

* Iinkqubo zokugcina amandla zinokudibaniswa neeplatifomu zokurhweba ngekhabhoni ukuze ziqonde ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokufumana iikhredithi zekhabhoni ngokunciphisa ukuthengwa kwamandla ekhabhoni ephezulu.

Imodeli yenzuzo eyahlukanisiweyo, ukwenzela ukuba iiprojekthi zokugcina amandla ezoshishino kunye nezorhwebo zingabi nomsebenzi wokonga kuphela, kodwa ngokuthe ngcembe zibe yindawo entsha yokukhula kwenzuzo.

Ugcino lwamandla kwimizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo lumi ngobusuku “bophuhliso oluqhushumbayo”. Ukususela kwisahlulo somgaqo-nkqubo, isikali semarike, ukubonelela kunye nokulinganisela kweemfuno ukuya kwinzuzo ehlukeneyo, zonke iinkalo zikhomba kwisigqibo esifanayo: unyaka ozayo uya kuba yindawo yokugcina amandla oshishino kunye nezorhwebo ukukhawulezisa ukufika kunye nesikali sokusetyenziswa kwexesha elibalulekileyo. Kubenzi bezixhobo zokugcina amandla, iinkampani zenkonzo yamandla, kunye nabasebenzisi beshishini, ukubekwa kwangaphambili, ukulima okunzulu izisombululo zasekhaya kuya kuphumelela amathuba entengiso.