Imodeli yeNtsebenziswano eDityanisiweyo “yeTekhnoloji + yokuSebenza + + eyiNkunzi” iKhokela iNguqu kwiMarike yokuGcina amandla.

1. Ukugcwala kwiMarike kunye nemingeni yeeModeli zeMveliso enye

Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, imakethi yogcino lwamandla yehlabathi ifumene ukukhula okuqhumayo. Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-BloombergNEF, amandla amatsha okugcina amandla ehlabathi afikelela kwi-45 gigawatts (GW) ngo-2023 (elingana ne-97 gigawatt-yure), ephawula ukwanda okukhulu konyaka kwirekhodi. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko imakethi isondela ekuzalisekeni, imodeli yokuthengisa imveliso enye iyasokola ukuhlangabezana neemfuno ezahlukeneyo zemarike. Ngokomzekelo, e-China, iindleko ze-turnkey zokugcinwa kweenkqubo zokugcinwa kwamandla ziye zehla ukuya kwi-115 yeedola nge-kWh-i-43% yehla ngonyaka-ukubonisa ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso oluqinisiweyo.

Ngaphezu koko, iimeko zokusetyenziswa kweenkqubo zogcino lwamandla ziyakhula ukusuka kulawulo lwamaza ombane wegridi kunye nokulinganisa intlambo yentlambo ukuya ekutshajweni kwemoto yombane. Iimodeli zemveli zemveliso enye azikwazi ukujongana nezi mfuno zininzi. Ngenxa yoko, ishishini lifuna ngokungxamisekileyo ukuphonononga iimodeli zeshishini elitsha ukuziqhelanisa nokutshintsha kweemarike.

1. Ukunyuka kweZisombululo eziDityanisiweyo

Ukujongana nemiceli mngeni yemarike, icandelo lokugcinwa kwamandla liqhubela phambili litshintshela ekuboneleleni ngezisombululo ezidibeneyo. Le modeli idlula ukuhlanganiswa kwemveliso elula, emele ukudityaniswa okunzulu kwetekhnoloji, ukusebenza kunye nenkunzi. Ngokomzekelo, i-Energy Storage njengeNkonzo (ESaaS) imodeli iye yavela, ivumela abasebenzisi ukuba bafikelele kwiinkonzo zokugcina amandla ngokusebenzisa amalungiselelo okuqeshisa ngaphandle kokuthwala iindleko eziphezulu zotyalo-mali.

Ngokoqikelelo lweMarket.us, imakethi ye-ESaaS yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ukusuka kwi-2.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2023 ukuya kwi-8.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2033, imele isantya sokukhula sonyaka (CAGR) se-13.6%. Olu hlumo luqhutywa ikakhulu kukwanda kwemfuno yokuguquguquka, izisombululo zokugcina amandla anokunyuka kuwo onke amacandelo emizi-mveliso, ezorhwebo, kunye nalawo aluncedo.

1. III. Imodeli yeNtsebenziswano yokuHlanganisa iTekhnoloji, ukuSebenza, kunye neNkunzi

Kwisakhelo sezisombululo ezihlanganisiweyo, intsebenziswano phakathi kwetekhnoloji, imisebenzi, kunye nenkunzi ibalulekile. Okokuqala, itekhnoloji ibonelela ngezakhono eziphambili kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla, kubandakanywa neeNkqubo zoLawulo lweBattery (BMS), iiNkqubo zoLawulo lwaMandla aPhezulu (EMS), kunye ne-algorithms yokucwangcisa ngobuchule. Okwesibini, umaleko wokusebenza ulawula ukuthunyelwa kwenkqubo, ukugcinwa, kunye nokuphucula ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza kakuhle. Okokugqibela, inkunzi ibonelela ngenkxaso yemali, ngakumbi ngexesha lamanyathelo okuqala, inceda iiprojekthi zoyise ukunqongophala kwenkxaso-mali.

Umzekelo, iplatifomu yaseFinnish yokuqalisa iCapalo AI “yesixhobo sombane esisebenzayo” sisebenzisa i-AI ukuqikelela ukuveliswa kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kunye nokusetyenziswa, nokwenza ngcono ukuthunyelwa kokugcinwa kwebhetri ukonyusa ingeniso. Eli qonga lisebenzisana nabatyali-mali abafana noGcino lweMW phantsi kwemodeli yokwabelana ngenzuzo ukuqhubela phambili ngokudibeneyo uphuhliso lweprojekthi.

1. Inkxaso kunye nemingeni kwiiMarike zeNkunzi

Inkunzi idlala indima ebalulekileyo kwiiprojekthi zokugcina amandla. Nangona kunjalo, iiprojekthi ezinjalo zihlala zijongene nemingeni yotyalo-mali oluphezulu kunye nomjikelo wembuyekezo wexesha elide, okwenza iimodeli zenkxaso-mali zemveli zingonelanga. Ngenxa yoko, kuye kwavela iindlela ezintsha zokuxhasa ngemali. Ngokomzekelo, iBhanki yoTyalo-mali yaseYurophu (EIB) isebenzisana ne-Breakthrough Energy Catalyst ukubonelela "ityala lomngcipheko" ngenkxaso-mali yokuqalisa, ukubanceda ukuba boyise "intlambo yokufa" kwaye baqhubele phambili iiprojekthi kakuhle.

Ukongeza, imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente kunye nenkuthazo iqhuba kakhulu imali yeprojekthi yokugcina amandla. Umzekelo, i-US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) inikezela ngetyala lerhafu ye-30% yeenkqubo zokugcina amandla kwindawo yokuhlala, ithoba kakhulu umqobo wotyalo-mali kubasebenzisi.

1. Uguqulo lweMarike

Inkqubela phambili yezobuchwephesha iya kuqhuba impumelelo yenkqubo, iinguqulelo zokusebenza ziya kunciphisa iindleko, kunye nenkxaso yemali iya kuqinisekisa ukuphunyezwa kweprojekthi. Ngokoqikelelo lweBloombergNEF, ukongezwa kwamandla onyaka kwihlabathi liphela kuya kufikelela kwi-137 gigawatts ngo-2030, kunye nobukhulu bemarike bukhula ukuya kwiiyure ezingama-442 zegigawatt. Oku kukhula kuya kuvela ikakhulu kwimimandla equka iTshayina, iUnited States, kunye neYurophu.

Kuyo yonke le nkqubo, intsebenziswano ye-synergistic yetekhnoloji, ukusebenza, kunye nenkunzi iya kuba yeyona nto iqhuba uphuhliso loshishino. Kuphela ngokudityaniswa okunzulu kwezi zinto zintathu apho imboni yogcino lwamandla inokuthi igqame kukhuphiswano olukhulu lweemarike kunye nokufezekisa uphuhliso oluzinzileyo.